Sub-project 9: Probabilistic risk assessment: methods and applications 

Development of methods for seismic fragility analysis of structures has been recently gaining ground as a primordial field of activity when assessing risk associated to exposed building stock and infrastructures. This comes as a recognition of the fact that all components of demand and supply are permeated by significant, though different and generally unknown, levels of uncertainty. An appropriate treatment of uncertainties and the evaluation and enhancement of the ensuing level of confidence is thus necessary in the context of risk assessment exercises.

In this Sub-Project, the present need for further research in the field of probabilistic risk assessment of structures is addressed, through a number of highly focused research tasks. The activity is subdivided into four Tasks. The first three tasks concern individual components of larger infrastructural systems of a urban industrial region. The fourth Task aims at a synthesis of the previous results finalised at a risk analysis of the whole region, taking into account the interactions among the components in each infrastructure. The Sub-Project is coordinated by UROMA, featuring also the participation of FEUP, UBRIS, ULJ, UNAP, UPM and USUR.

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A summary of each of the tasks involved in this Sub-Project is provided below:

Task 2.3b.1: Development of methods for the determination of structure-specific fragility curves

The methods developed will account for uncertainty in seismic motion, mechanical parameters, capacity models, and for multiple correlated modes of failure. The activities will focus on further development of the RSM and EFA methodologies with the objectives of (i) introducing additional theoretical features, (ii) better defining their respective optimal fields of application through extensive use for different types of structures, (iii) simplifying them to the maximum possible extent so as to make them practically affordable for a large number of operators. The participants involved in this task are UROMA, USUR, ULJ, UNAP, UPM and FEUP.

Task 2.3b.2: Application of the probabilistic methods to real structures (buildings, bridges) to assess their validity and practicability

The main objective is that of assessing how current methodologies fair when applied to real structures. In particular, the effect of the presence of infill panels in RC frames needs to be adequately incorporated in current probabilistic assessment methodologies. The feasibility of the assessment methods, especially when applied to such real type of structures, needs also to be adequately verified. The participants involved in this task are UROMA, USUR, ULJB, UNAP, UPM, FEUP and UBRIS.

Task 2.3b.3: Validate of current codified deterministic procedures for seismic safety assessment 

The probabilistic methods developed and verified through the activities of the current Cluster will then employed in a validation exercise of the deterministic procedures currently presently specified in European regulations (Eurocode 8). The participants involved in this task are UROMA, ULJB and UNAP.

Task 2.3b.4: Development of methods for seismic risk analysis of infrastructures of regional extension 

The goal of this Task is the development of an integrated framework for assessing the seismic risk on major infrastructures. There is a currently a real need for the earthquake engineering community to develop and integrated framework for performance based engineering which can readily be used by industry to minimise the seismic risk on large infrastructures such as dams, bridges, water supply systems etc. Previous work carried out for the probabilistic assessment of hazard on large infrastructures will be expanded and improved upon. The participants involved in this task are UROMA, UBRIS and UNAP.